The Valley tips, best bets, Moir Stakes meeting preview

News Corp analyst Brad Waters takes a first look at Friday night’s 1 Moir Stakes group meeting at The Valley.

BEST BET

ASFOORA (Race 5, n°8)
Asfoora was a dominant winner at Sandown earlier this month. She is placed in a group and should be tough to beat again.

BET VALUE

GLANCE OF HOPE (Race 8, No.8)
Glint Of Hope closed well when not far at Flemington first. She will enjoy the 1600m and won’t be far away.

FIRST QUADDY

1, 2, 10, 11/2, 4, 5, 8/1, 3, 7, 15/3, 4, 5, 9

$100 Flexi for 39.06%

BIG6

1, 3, 7, 15/3, 4, 5, 9/5, 8/4, 8, 9/3, 4, 9, 12/1, 2, 6, 8

$100 Flexi for 6.51%

QUADDY

Race 6: 5, 8

Race 7: 4, 8, 9

Race 8: 3, 4, 9, 12

Race 9: 1, 2, 6, 8

$100 Flexi for 104.16%

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RACE 1: KITCHEN PLATE ASPECT (1200m)

Sweet track expected for Friday night’s Moir Stakes meeting. EL PADRINO (1) pushed forward and fought hard when he got close to Listed level first and will only get fitter. OCEANS ABOVE (12) scored easily on his only run last time and will have had time to develop. KAYGEEBEE (11) has made his debut and could be up to it. CUSTODIAN (10) relished the drop to first place in class and will be in much better shape for this outing.

SUGGESTED BET: The Godfather to win.

TAB MARKET MOVE: Shalaman $4.20 – $3.80

RACE 2: GROUP 3 SCARBOROUGH Stakes (1200m)

BOUND FOR HOME (5) ran hard to take a surprise win at Caulfield first and ran a solid second at second-placed Flemington last time out. Another strong performance is expected at The Valley. PRAIRIE FLOWER (8) is fit for two promising attempts this time around and could be up to it. QUEEN OF THE BALL (2) is coming off a run in good form in Sydney and should be around the mark. TROACH (4) was a good winner at The Valley last time out and deserves a rethink.

SUGGESTED BET: Bound For Home to win.

TAB MARKET MOVE: English Riviera $4.80 – $3.70.

RACE 3: MSC SIGNED HANDICAP (1200m)

SNAPPER (7) is a specialist at The Valley and has terrific starting speed. He was beaten within three lengths at Group 1 level here last time out and should be tough to beat. CLEMENCEAU (3) will be the toughest to beat after a great first run at Rosehill last time out. SHARP RESPONSE (15) ran well first and ran consistently last time out, including a field goal in Bendigo. NOT TO BE MIST (1) goes fresh and should be prominent despite the delicate door.

SUGGESTED BET: Snap to win.

TAB MARKET MOVE: Clemenceau $2.8- – $2.25.

RACE 4: STUTT GROUP 2 CHALLENGES (1600m)

Tough race but MURAMASA (9) could rise to the occasion thanks to his impressive first win at Sale last time out. HE’S HEAVEN (5) came forward and fought hard as he was not far behind promising Berkeley Square in Flemington. It will spring forward and be hard to take down. VIRTUOUS CIRCLE (3) ran well to get up just the last time and will be better for this outing. TIJUANA (4) ran hard behind Berkeley Square and looks fit for the 1600m.

SUGGESTED BET: Muramasa each way.

TAB MARKET MOVE: Tijuana $3.20 – $2.80

RACE 5: 55 SECONDS CHALLENGE ROUND 1 (955m)

ASFOORA (8) is a smart mare on her way to tougher races and should be tough to beat with the fitness gained from her impressive first win at Sandown. GALENUS (5) chased Galenus home in the replay at Sandown first and he is a second winner. YULONG COMMAND (4) is yet to claim first place but has a stunning record around The Valley and he jumped well at Flemington before that. ROSE QUARTZ (7) is the first undefeated and has done enough in her tries and jumps to indicate a forward throw is likely.

SUGGESTED BET: Victory of Asfoora.

TAB MARKET MOVE: Asfoora $2.90-$2.40.

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RACE 6: GROUP 3 JRC CUP (2040m)

Delicate edition of the JRA Cup, made even more difficult by the Nonconformist scratch. DESERT ICON (8) had a good run before scoring on this course last time out and drops to 54kg despite finishing third. GREAT HOUSE (4) ran well behind Makram first and has an excellent second record as he runs well on this trip. AURORA’S SYMPHONY (7) gave her best on her recovery and she placed both times at The Valley. MAKRAM (7) finished hard to score second but should be around if he manages The Valley.

SUGGESTED BET: Icon of the desert to win.

TAB MARKET MOVE: Macrame $4.60-$4.

RACE 7: GROUP 1 MOIR Stakes (1000m)

The speedsters will run for $1 million in the Moir Stakes in which ROTHFIRE (3) looks fit after winning the McEwen Stakes and he is undefeated on the 1000m course. BELLA NIPOTINA (9) fought hard to score the top spot and ran well at The Valley and soft ground won’t worry her. ZOUSTYLE (4) led and tried hard in the McEwen Stakes and should again give them something to chase. COOLANGATTA (12) will be much better for his first effort and should be harder to hold.

SUGGESTED BET: Rothfire Victory.

TAB MARKET MOVE: Rothfire $4.80-$4.40.

RACE 8: CHALLENGES GROUP 2 STOCKS (1600m)

Tough finish for bettors in the Stocks Stakes, but going with GLINT OF HOPE (8) is worth a go-and-go after chasing well when she was close on the replay at Flemington. She will enjoy the 1600m trip. DEFIANT DIVA (6) steps up to class for this after a good effort at Sandown last time out but she will run well. KISSONALLFOURCHEEKS (1) was well ridden to win the Let’s Elope Stakes at Flemington and should come close again. FOXY FRIDA (2) ran well first and is worth including again.

SUGGESTED BET: Glint Of Hope every way.

TAB MARKET MOVE: Foxy Frida $8-$6.

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Originally published as Advice from the Valley: Rothfire a good bet in Group 1 Moir Stakes