Prostate cancer rates are expected to rise massively by 43% over the next 20 years, with 630,000 men facing twice the average risk due to family history, new data has revealed.
The number of men diagnosed is expected to rise from more than 240,000 currently to 372,000 by 2040, according to the research.
More than 24,000 Australian men are likely to be diagnosed with prostate cancer this year and more than 3,500 are expected to die from it.
The alarming figures have prompted the Prostate Cancer Foundation of Australia to call for greater awareness ahead of The Long Run campaign next month.
The foundation’s chief executive, Anne Savage, said prostate cancer was the most commonly diagnosed cancer in Australia, but there had never been a state-funded community awareness campaign targeting young people. men at risk.
“These latest estimates suggest that up to 630,000 Australian men may face twice the average risk of prostate cancer due to their family history of the disease,” she said.
“Essentially, we are facing a tidal wave of risk.
“It is essential that we give these men and their families all the information they need to enable early diagnosis and prompt treatment.”
The figures were based on the number of Australian men diagnosed with prostate cancer over the past 40 years who could now have male children.
Joseph Chan, team leader of the MNC Actuaries project, said the data would help target men who were at higher risk.
“Our team came up with two different approaches to modeling and the results were surprisingly consistent. We didn’t initially think the final figure would be that high,” he said.
“We derived the estimate based on the evidence that men who have a father or brother who has previously been diagnosed with prostate cancer have twice the average risk of developing the disease.
“Men who have at least two close male relatives who have been diagnosed have a lifetime risk of developing prostate cancer that is five times higher.”
However, the project did not distinguish between risk levels.
“We calculated the estimate by reconciling the number of male children born to men with prostate cancer, as well as the number of brothers they have, taking into account all men diagnosed with prostate cancer. prostate cancer who are still alive or deceased,” he said.
“For greater accuracy, the estimates also take into account a likely number of undiagnosed cases.”
Organizers of The Long Run hope to raise $1.7 million this year.
“We hope to bring people together to save lives,” Ms Savage said.
Originally published as ‘Risk tidal wave’: Research reveals chilling warning for men